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《大行》瑞銀維持友邦(01299.HK)「買入」評級 市場似乎已大致反映最壞情況
瑞銀發表研究報告指,目前市場似乎已很大程度上反映了第837號法令對內地訪客(MCV)保險業務影響的最壞情況,即假設未來內地訪客新業務價值(VNB)為零。該行認為,只要監管結果並非全面禁止內地訪客新業務,友邦保險(01299.HK)的股價便具備上行潛力,目前的擔憂顯得過度。瑞銀列出三大支持因素:首先,與代理等中介機構的討論顯示,目前包括銷售及保費支付在內的運作...
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《大行》瑞銀維持友邦(01299.HK)「買入」評級 市場似乎已大致反映最壞情況
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瑞銀發表研究報告指,目前市場似乎已很大程度上反映了第837號法令對內地訪客(MCV)保險業務影響的最壞情況,即假設未來內地訪客新業務價值(VNB)為零。該行認為,只要監管結果並非全面禁止內地訪客新業務,友邦保險(01299.HK)  +0.650 (+0.881%)    Short selling $541.10M; Ratio 10.010%   的股價便具備上行潛力,目前的擔憂顯得過度。

瑞銀列出三大支持因素:首先,與代理等中介機構的討論顯示,目前包括銷售及保費支付在內的運作保持穩定,香港金管局近期對銀行投資賬戶的限制僅針對證券交易,與保險購買或支付無關;其次,內地訪客保險業務在中國內地及香港的監管框架下均為可行;第三,香港財政司司長陳茂波於2026年6月10日的活動中發表了建設性言論,重申中央政府高度支持香港。此外,得益於自5月中旬以來密集的推廣活動,該行預計友邦香港第二季的新業務價值表現可能超出市場預期。

瑞銀補充,除香港內地訪客業務的監管不確定性外,友邦其他業務的基本實力依然完好,且具備應對危機的良好記錄。該行預期友邦在中國內地市場具備吸引力,預計2025至2030財年的新業務價值複合年增長率可達18%;同時,針對2019年後進入的新地區,目標於2025至2030財年實現40%的新業務價值複合年增長率。現時該股估值相當於預測12個月遠期內含價值市盈率(P/EV)的1.04倍,營運內含價值回報率(RoEV)為16%,提供了具吸引力的風險回報比。該行重申友邦保險「買入」評級,目標價維持104元不變。(ad/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-12 12:25.)

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