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《大行》摩通升快手(01024.HK)評級至「增持」 上調目標價至71元
摩根大通發表研究報告指,將快手-W(01024.HK)的投資評級由「中性」上調至「增持」,並將其直至2026年12月的目標價由48元上調至71元。該行預期,快手旗下的可靈AI(Kling AI)價值將在未來12個月內釋放。基於快手近期公告及新聞報道,可靈AI尋求外部融資將觸發快手對其進行重新估值。該行目前對可靈AI的估值為35億美元,這得到了2027年預期市...
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《大行》摩通升快手(01024.HK)評級至「增持」 上調目標價至71元
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摩根大通發表研究報告指,將快手-W(01024.HK)  -0.380 (-0.826%)    Short selling $453.04M; Ratio 19.902%   的投資評級由「中性」上調至「增持」,並將其直至2026年12月的目標價由48元上調至71元。該行預期,快手旗下的可靈AI(Kling AI)價值將在未來12個月內釋放。基於快手近期公告及新聞報道,可靈AI尋求外部融資將觸發快手對其進行重新估值。該行目前對可靈AI的估值為35億美元,這得到了2027年預期市銷率(P/S)30倍的支持(快手當前市值為250億美元)。此外,可靈AI的增長速度快於預期,因此該行將可靈AI在2026及2027年的收入預測分別上調34%及64%,並預計其2026及2027年的收入將分別增長250%及104%。全球企業和專業消費者市場的需求強勁,可靈AI有70%以上的收入來自海外,其API與訂閱的組合比例為60比40。與此同時,競爭環境正變得更加溫和,字節跳動旗下的Seedance近期在第二季提價,而美國主要同行(Google和OpenAI)正專注於AI代碼編寫而非視頻生成。

摩根大通指出,快手當前股價具備下行保護,該行擁有130億美元的淨現金,佔市值的52%。如果從當前市值中扣除淨現金以及所持有的可靈AI股份(價值170億美元,快手目前持有100%股權,該行給予50%的控股公司折讓),快手剩餘的短視頻業務交易價值為負值,而該行仍預計該核心短視頻業務在2026年將產生約30億美元的利潤。

摩根大通指出,可靈AI的指數級增長仍在繼續,其在2026年第一季的收入按年增長4倍,且年化經常性收入(ARR)在2026年3月達到5億美元,預計ARR將在2027年上半年達到10億美元以上。可靈AI正逐步滲透至個人視頻創作者及專業視頻內容開發商。該行分析顯示,可靈AI的潛在市場規模(TAM)達1,080億美元(主要為廣告和專業視頻製作),而可靈目前的滲透率不足1%。

摩根大通預計,可靈AI推出新版本、股權融資更新以及ARR提升將是關鍵的股價催化劑。儘管由於去年電商的高基數,該行預計快手核心業務(撇除可靈)次季收入將按年下降1%,但快手核心收入在2026年下半年及2027年的復甦(潛在驅動因素包括2027年直播高基數效效應的消退、AI短劇廣告在2026年下半年的加快增長等)也將推動股價上行。然而,該行將快手2026及2027年經調整後每股盈利預測分別下調5.4%及3.3%至3.66元人民幣及4.09元人民幣。(ad/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-11 16:25.)

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